Déjà vu Geopolitics: Marxism and the Geopolitical Undead

Undead, unkillable and uncannily, unceasingly trendy, ‘geopolitics’ strikes again. Marxist geopolitics could have been a good idea - for Marxists at least. This version doesn't work for two reasons: first, its emphasis on the inter-relationship between territory, capitalism and power makes it virtually indistinguishable from Marxism writ large; and second, it re-legitimates some of the familiar yet noxious tropes of classical geopolitics.     

Exploring the role of FDI in enhancing the entrepreneurial activity in Europe: a panel data analysis

This paper explores the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the entrepreneurial activity in 16 European countries. By using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data, which enables the distinction necessity-driven vs. opportunity-driven entrepreneurs, we assess the influence of both inward and outward FDI on the entrepreneurial activity during the time span 2005–2012. We resort to a static, as well as to a dynamic panel data analysis. Our findings highlight the fact that the FDI has no clear influence on the total entrepreneurial activity, or on the established business ownership rate. Nevertheless, our results clearly state that both inward and outward FDI positively influences the necessity-driven entrepreneurs, while having a negative impact on the opportunity-driven entrepreneurs. The results prove to be robust regarding the use of a fixed and random effects panel model, two stages least square (2SLS) model, as well as the use of a system-Generalized Method of Moments (system-GMM) approach.     

Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas

We present a flexible class of hierarchical copulas capable of modelling multidimensional joint distributions of asset returns with a richer rank correlation structure than existing models. We derive estimators and simulation techniques. The methods are applied to an illustrative portfolio consisting of a subset of DAX stocks.     

Effects of US interest rates and news on the daily interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy: evidence from Turkey

It has been widely demonstrated that asset prices react sensitively to macroeconomic news releases both in the industrialized countries and emerging markets. However, there are contradicting results on the effects of changes in interest rates of industrialized countries on asset prices of emerging markets. In heavily indebted economies, in addition to these factors, political news and announcements from international institutions that may increase or decrease concerns about debt sustainability can affect asset prices as well. This potential notwithstanding, there has been relatively limited empirical work on the effects of such variables. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of all of these factors on interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy. Using daily post-crisis data of the Turkish economy we show that both good and bad political news, International Monetary Fund announcements, and European Union related news significantly affected secondary market government securities yields, whereas volatility of yields was affected mainly by bad news releases. Changes in US Treasury bond rates and ‘appetite’ for risk of foreign investors did not affect government securities yields in the period analysed.     

Stochastic optimization applied to self-financing portfolio: does bequest matter?

The article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk-free assets. We use a stochastic optimization technique, in which utility is maximized subject to a self-financing portfolio constraint. The papers in literature have estimated the errors of Euler equations using data from financial markets. It has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order Euler equation implied by the model. However, they all assume a constant consumption–wealth ratio that constrains the boundary conditions, hence influencing the coefficient of the risk premium. The main contribution of our article is that we drop the assumption of a constant consumption–wealth ratio. We have an analytical solution using a utility maximization model with a stochastic self-financing portfolio. We introduce a terminal condition of wealth with and without bequests. We also simulate the stochastic optimization with a self-financing portfolio, distinguishing risk neutral investors (γ-low) from high risk averse investors (γ-high). We show that the model with bequest has a higher level of wealth and a smoother decline of consumption over time than the model with no bequest at the end of the period. The model with no bequest has the same level of consumption and a sharp fall at the end of the period. Risk averse agents with high return assets have a higher amount of wealth than risk-neutral agents with lower return assets.     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

Deregulation and firm investment: evidence from the dismantling of the license system in India

We analyse the impact of deregulatory reforms in India during the 1990s, which eliminated compulsory industrial licensing, on manufacturing firms’ investment decisions. We find an economically and statistically significant positive effect of delicensing on investment. We also show that firms in states with better credit conditions benefitted more from the removal of licences. Moreover, our analysis demonstrates that the increase in investment was predominantly driven by smaller firms.     

大豆地膜覆盖栽培技术

分析了地膜覆盖栽培大豆增产的原因,重点介绍了大豆全生育期地膜覆盖栽培技术中整地与施肥,选种,覆膜,播种及田间管理的技术措施。